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Resumen Semanal del 12 al 16 de Agosto

 

Argentina PASO, massive defeat for Macri’s government. By the end of the week, Fitch Ratings cut sovereign rating by three notches to CCC. S&P Global cut rating by one notch to B-, outlook negative. Argentina, are the bonds discounting a restructuring already? CDS from 50% to 75%. FX is the key.Pimco, Templeton and Blackrock, Ashmore, Fidelity, TRow Price amongst the big losers on Argentina.

  • GOOD NEWS, NO SIGNS OF CONTAGION TO OTHER EM. Going forward all will depend on AF comments. MM has almost no more room to maneuver here.
  • Markets climbed through Friday, but the Dow industrials finished the week off 1.5%, to 25,886.01; the S&P 500 shed 1%, to 2888.68,  and the Nasdaq declined 0.8%, to 7895.99. Market is just 6% off the highs.
  • Hong Kong, the problems persist.The crisis in HK is getting worse by the day. No end in sight and serious economic impact on the island. Will China intervene?
  • The Dollar is super high! This is putting a lot of pressure (Pres Trump is not happy about it)
  • The 2-10 Inversion: Bonds markets around the world are thinking recession more and more. UST at 1.6%, ROW in negative rates
  • The 2-10 Inversion: Bonds markets around the world are thinking recession more and more. UST at 1.6%, ROW in negative rates
  • The Numbers
    1. CPI came as a surprise at 2.2% e 2.1% (june was 2.1%). Ex food 1.8% e1.7%
    2. Retail Sales at 8:30 e 0.3% a 0.7%, ex auto e 0.5%, a. 0.7%. Productivity also  at 2.3% much higher than e 1.4%
  • China – US : No new tariffs until mid December. Phones/Tablets/Computers/Toys
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