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We investors always move on paradigms; we follow a pattern or a model to make our investments. When the paradigm shifts or changes that’s when big changes occur, creating big losses or gains in the markets. The Wall Street guru Byron Wien used to say that change at the margin is what makes the markets move.

For the last few decades we have invested in emerging markets bonds under the paradigm of willingness to pay. After the original emerging markets crisis of 1982, all investors knew that the countries had the money to pay but had decided to stop payments in order to fulfill other more important obligations, like paying their teachers, state pensions, etc.

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